Budgets are short term. Pensions are long term. Yet we keep running one through the other.

The Autumn Budget is an annual fiscal event designed to manage tax, spending, and borrowing in response to and within OBR forecasts. Budget announcements are often base on a reaction to short term economic changes rather than being designed to support financial structures which benefit from stability. However, pensions are a regular feature of Budget speculation. Possible areas of change this year include tax-free cash, higher-rate relief, NICs on employer contributions, salary sacrifice, and there are calls to scrap the triple lock.

Pensions are attractive to the Treasury because they can increase revenue without raising income tax, VAT or NICs. But using the Budget to make these decisions creates uncertainty. Rumours in the run-up to Budget day now routinely trigger behavioural changes, and this year we have seen a significant increase in pension withdrawals.

Pensions are under pressure because the government is trying to meet tight fiscal rules, protect public services, and avoid tax rises at the same time. But the Budget is a short-term, reactive event, and not a suitable place to make long-term pension policy.

We could look at alternatives – the new Pensions Commission could become the primary source of structural decisions, with the Budget responding to its recommendations rather than generating new ones each year. Another option is a pensions settlement that is reviewed every few years with consultations and notice periods. At the very least we could push for a commitment not to change pension tax rules without advance consultation and transitional plans.

Given current economic conditions, pensions are likely to be feature in this Budget. But we should all be thinking about whether they continue to be used as a short-term revenue lever, or whether the government needs to shift towards a more predictable process. A commitment to route major decisions through the Commission, avoid ad hoc changes, and/or provide clear timelines would begin to separate long-term pension design from annual financial pressures.

Pensions require stability. The Budget does not provide it. Until that gap is addressed, uncertainty will remain a structural feature of the system.